This Year Next Year: Special – Global eCommerce Forecast


eCommerce has been the winner in 2020 and there is a new plateau for newly accelerated future growth. CPG manufacturers, in particular, experienced a significant transition in how their products were bought, leading to a 277% increase in retail sales via eCommerce channels in 2Q of 2020 alone.


In GroupM’s first-ever eCommerce forecast, we developed country-specific estimates of historical and forecasted consumer eCommerce spending within many of the world’s largest retail economies.


We estimate that global retail eCommerce – including automotive sales but excluding food and delivery services to ensure consistency across each market – will amount to $3.9 trillion in 2020 or 17% of equivalent global retail sales.


Understanding that context, here are the key takeaways from This Year, Next Year: eCommerce Forecast Report:
eCommerce’s Future: the eCommerce boom has allowed us to estimate $10 trillion in retail eCommerce sales by 2027.
>> By 2024, retail-focused eCommerce will amount to $7 trillion in annual sales activity or 25% of retail sales at that time.
>> If growth continues at a low double-digit pace in subsequent years, then, by 2027, eCommerce sales would amount to 10 trillion globally.
>> Significantly faster rates of growth in eCommerce sales during 1Q of 2020 and 2Q of 2020; continued elevated sales in 3Q of 2020 in both Canada and Australia.


Impact for Marketers: omnichannel strategies are increasingly important as eCommerce continues to grow as people adopt and onboard online shopping in more product categories. It will also continue to grow as the very concept of retailing evolves.
>> Retailers are forced to re-think and adapt strategies for retail management, store layout and location, customer service, and more.
>> Many also exploring social commerce, which is becoming an increasingly important component of a retail eCommerce strategy.
>> While automotive has adopted eCommerce during the pandemic, and we have previously advocated for that gap to be bridged more going forward, it’s unlikely they transition to an eCommerce-based business because consumers will have a low propensity to buy those categories online over the long term.


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